2015 NFL Rookies – Fantasy Impact

There are more NFL rookies making waves in fantasy football than ever before.  With elite rookie WR’s QB’s and RB’s expected to star in the NFL, rookies can have an enormous impact on your season.  If you play in a keeper league the stakes are even higher.

One way to consistently maintain an edge in your league is to have a firm grasp on the latest class of rookies.  These freshly minted millionaires can’t wait to get on the field, but only a handful will be winning games for YOU on Sundays.

Since 2001 there have been zero NFL Rookies of the Year drafted after the 2^nd round.  Thus, I typically put the majority of my focus on players drafted in rounds one and two; a player whose team has invested heavily financially and emotionally.

Here is the list of NFL Offensive Rookies of the Year (Since 2001):

Anthony Thomas – Bears – 2^nd Round (2001)
Clinton Portis – Broncos – 2^nd Round (2002)
Anquan Boldin – Cardinals – 2^nd Round (2003)
Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers – 1^st Round (2004)
Cadillac Williams – Bucs – 1^st Round (2005)
Vince Young – Titans – 1^st Round (2006)
Adrian Peterson – Vikings – 1^st Round (2007)
Matt Ryan – Falcons – 1^st Round (2008)
Percy Harvin – Vikings – 1^st Round (2009)
Sam Bradford – Rams – 1^st Round (2010)
Cam Newton – Panthers – 1^st Round (2011)
Robert Griffin III – Redskins – 1^st Round (2012)
Eddie Lacey – Packers – 2^nd Round (2013)
Odell Beckham Jr – 1^st Round (2014)

Although the agreed upon slotting of the NFL Draft has minimized rookie contracts there are still teams making bigger investments on rookies.  Anyone who says money doesn’t matter and it’s the best 11 on the field at all times is wrong.  You better believe that when you pay a player like Amari Cooper 22.7 million over four years with a nearly 14.7 million dollar signing bonus…he’s playing.  Especially if you compare a player like Cooper to Devin Smith (Jets 2^nd Round Pick), Cooper will make nearly four times his money and be offered a much longer leash.  This is why I want to give you an idea of where the first two rounds of rookies were drafted and what they are getting paid.  It matters.

2015 NFL Draft – Rounds 1 & 2 – Impact Players
Player position (Round/Pick) – Team [depth chart status] $$$

Jamis Winston QB (Round 1, pick # 1) – Bucs [QB1] – $25.4 Mil
Marcus Mariota QB (Round 1, pick #2) – Titans [QB1] – $24.2 Mil
Amari Cooper WR (Round 1, pick #4) – Raiders [WR1] – $22.7 Mil
Kevin White WR (Round 1, pick #7) – Bears [WR2] – $16.6 Mil
Todd Gurley RB (Round 1, pick #10) – Rams [RB1, recovering from ACL] – $13.8 Mil
DeVante Parker WR (Round 1, pick #14) – Dolphins [PUP, foot injury] – $10.9 Mil
Melvin Gordon RB (Round 1, pick #15) – Chargers [RB1] – $10.7 Mil
Nelson Agholar WR (Round 1, pick #20) – Eagles [WR2] – $9.4 Mil
Breshad Perriman WR (Round 1, pick #26) – Ravens [WR2] – $8.7 Mil
Phillip Dorsett WR (Round 1, pick #29) – Colts [WR3/4] – $8.1 Mil
T.J. Yeldon RB (Round 2, pick #36) – Jaguars [RB1] – $5.9 Mil
Devin Smith WR (Round 2, pick #37) – Jets [WR3/4] – $5.9 Mil
Dorial Green-Beckham WR (Round 2, pick #40) – Titans [WR2] – $5.6 Mil
Devin Funchess WR (Round 2, pick #41) – Panthers [WR2] – $5.5 Mil
Ameer Abdullah RB (Round 2, pick #54) – Lions [RB2] – $4.2 Mil
Maxx Williams TE (Round 2, pick #55) – Ravens [TE2] – $4.1 Mil

QFS Ranking Explained

The criteria we used to come up with our top ten consist of five categories: 1) Opportunity –How much are they getting paid, 2) Talent – Where are they currently on their teams depth chart, 3) Team/productivity – how good is the offense they’re joining (2014 regular season pts/g), 4) Position – Some positions like RB have been more productive in fantasy then others, 5) Current Yahoo draft position, where are they being drafted.  Here are our findings and the release of our 2015 Top 10 NFL Rookies – Fantasy Impact Players:

#1 Melvin Gordon – RB1 (San Diego Chargers)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 3^rd Round

Over the years RB’s have proven that they can step right into the NFL and give you fantasy production.   Last season, 2^nd round pick Jeremy Hill went for 1100+ yards and 9 TD’s, and in 2013 2^nd round rookie RB Eddie Lacey went for 1100+ yards and 11 TD’s (both finished in the top 10 for RB’s in scoring).  This year, our pick for top-10 production from a rookie is Mr. Melvin Gordon.  Gordon will look a lot like Jamal Charles when you see him on Sundays.  He’s the lead back for a consistent high powered offense and deserves a look in the 2^nd-4^th round depending on your draft.  Gordon is currently being drafted in the 3^rd round and is the 12^th RB coming off the board.

#2 Todd Gurley – RB1 (Saint Louis Rams)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 4^th Round

Todd Gurley is #2 on our list despite coming off an ACL injury in November of last year.  Gurley is a punishing runner who many experts felt was the best player in the 2015 NFL draft.  When he is healthy he will be the #1 back in the Rams new offense and will likely receive plenty of reps with Coach Jeff Fisher wanting to pound the rock.  Gurley is currently projected to make his first appearance late in the pre-season.  If he was healthy he’d be a no-brainer, but recovering from injury is always tricky when drafting.

#3 Jameis Winston – QB1 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 12^th Round

The richest man in the 2015 NFL draft comes in at #3 on our list.  “Famous Jameis” wins and losses won’t matter much to a veteran fantasy football owner.  The Bucs likely won’t win many games, but they will be throwing the ball and trailing all season.  The number one pick in the draft will be asked to carry an ailing offense that averaged only 17.3pts/g in 2014.  The combination of Winston’s talented pass catching core of Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins…and the fact they will be playing from behind makes Winston an intriguing mid to late round pick.

#4 Amari Cooper – WR1 (Oakland Raiders)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 6th Round

Amari Cooper is currently the 3^rd rookie being drafted in most leagues a few rounds after Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley.  Cooper is undeniably talented, but the team he landed on was the 2^nd lowest scoring team in the NFL in 2014.  The highest paid WR among rookies (22.7 mil), by a large margin, will be opposite Michael Crabtree whom he is sure to supplant as the #1 WR.  The down side with this amazingly talented athlete is he plays for a terribly run Franchise.  However, if Derek Carr can improve on his 21 TD 12 INT rookie campaign, this 5^th-7^th round pick could be the steal of the draft.

#5 Marcus Mariota – QB1 (Tennessee Titans)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 12^th Round

Hawaii’s own Marcus Mariota should be exciting to watch and an excellent fantasy QB.  Reason being…he’s 6’4” 230lbs and can run!  In many leagues rushing stats for QB’s can play a large role in scoring.  Mariota could be a player you get late in the draft who could turn into a regular starter on your squad.  Mariota is also extremely accurate with the football which will help him with the tight windows in the NFL.  Mariota received the second largest contract in the draft and the Titans are rolling him out there from day one.  Unlike Winston however, Mariota has much less talent around him and will almost certainly struggle at times.

#6 Nelson Agholar – WR2 (Philadelphia Eagles)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 12^th Round

Agholar will find himself in the perfect situation in Philadelphia with the 3^rd highest scoring team in the NFL, and a coach who will love to get him the ball in space.  Agholar is coming out of USC and if you haven’t seen him play, he may remind you of recently axed DeSean Jackson.  Agholar will play in the slot and will get a multitude of opportunities to make big plays.  The first round draft pick could have the opportunity to be the #1 passing option for the high-octane offense since R. Cooper and 2^nd year WR Jordan Mathews are far from elite.

#7 T.J. Yeldon – RB1 (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 8^th Round

T.J. Yeldon has been the 4^th rookie drafted behind only Gordon, Gurley, and Cooper.  He would be a more highly coveted pick if he didn’t play for the lowest scoring offense in the NFL the last two years and counting.  Yeldon should easily emerge as the premier back in Jacksonville with “Shoelace” Denard Robinson, Toby Gerhart, and Bernard Pierce; not exactly the Eagles backfield.  He could also be leaned on heavily to stem the tide for second year starting QB Blake Bortles.

#8 Kevin White – WR2 (Chicago Bears)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 11^th Round

When you’re 6’3 215lbs, run a 4.35 forty, and can bench press 23 reps at 225lbs…you’ll get NFL scouts salivating.  Kevin White is the prototypical NFL-bodied WR who has some serious skill.  White was the second highest paid WR in the 2015 NFL Draft, bringing in a cool 16.6 million over four years.  He is currently the #2 WR opposite Alshon Jeffrey in the Jay Cutler-lead offense.  White may turn out to be a steal if you happen to land him late.

#9 Breshad Perriman – WR2 (Baltimore Ravens)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 13^th Round

The Ravens have had quality teams for years now, and Joe Flacco is a proven Franchise NFL QB.  Often players drafted at the bottom of the board in the first round land in nice situations; this is certainly the case for Breshad Perriman.  Perriman will be opposite a pros-pro in Steve Smith, and will benefit from Flacco’s play action game.  He is 6’2” 218lbs and ran a 4.24 forty at his pro day at Central Florida.  He’s got NFL breakaway speed and has shown amazing body control.  The rookie will join the 8^th highest scoring team in the NFL and perennial Playoff contender.

#10 Ameer Abdullah – RB2 (Detroit Lions)
Current Yahoo Draft Position: 11^th Round

A Nebraska Cornhusker a year ago, Ameer Abdullah finds himself in the Lions backfield battling for playing time with first-time starter, Joique Bell.  Abudullah’s 4-year 4.2 million dollar deal is considerably less then Bell’s 3 years 9.3 million, however Abdullah’s shifty style is a perfect fit for the Lions spread offense.  Abdullah is currently taking first team reps with Bell out with a knee injury, and could see increased time to show off his skill in the pre-season.  Keep a close eye on this backfield, if Abdullah wins the job at some point, you’ll want him.

2015 NFL Rookies QFS Ranking